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Published on: 30/08/2019
Probability
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Questions + Answers key
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1.
Consider the experiment of throwing a die, if a multiple of 3 comes up, throw the die again and if any other number comes, toss a coin. Find the conditional probability of the event ‘the coin shows a tail’, given that ‘at least one die shows a 3’.
2.
Events E and F are given to be independent. Find P(F) if it is given that P(E) = 0.60 and P(E\(\cap\)F) = 0.35
3.
Given P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.7 and P(B/A) = 0.6, Find \(P(A\cup B)\)
4.
Given P(A) = 0.2, P(B) = 0.3 and \(P(A\cap B)=0.3\) Find P(A/B)
5.
Bayes’ Theorem If E1 , E2 ,..., En are n non empty events which constitute a partition of sample space S, i.e. E1 , E2 ,..., En are pairwise disjoint and E1∪ E2∪ ... ∪ En = S and A is any event of nonzero probability, then
\(\mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{E}_i \mid \mathrm{A}\right)=\frac{\mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{E}_i\right) \mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{A}_{\mid} \mathrm{E}_i\right)}{\sum_{j=1}^n \mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{E}_j\right) \mathrm{P}\left({\left.\mathrm{A} \mid E_j\right)}_1\right.} \text { for any } i=1,2,3, \ldots, n\)
6.
Given P(A) = \(1\over2\), P(B) = \(1\over3\) and \(P(A\cap B)={1\over6}\) Are the events A and B independent?
1.
The outcomes of the given experiment can be represented by the following tree diagram.
The sample space of the experiment is,
Let be the event that the coin shows a tail and be the event that at least one die shows .
Then,
Probability of the event that the coin shows a tail, given that at least one die shows , is given by .
Therefore, \(P(A \mid B)=\frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)}=\frac{0}{\frac{7}{36}}=0\)
2.
For independent events,
P(E∩F) = P(E) ⋅ P(F)
\(\Rightarrow 0.35=0.60 \times P(F) \Rightarrow P(F)=\frac{7}{12}=0.58\)
3.
\(
P(B / A)=\frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)}
\)
\(\Rightarrow 0.6 \times 0.4=P(A \cap B)
\)
\(\Rightarrow P(A \cap B)=0.24
\)
\( P(A \cup B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A \cap B)
\)
\(=0.4+0.7-0.24=0.86
\)
4.
1/3
5.
proof :
By formula of conditional probability, we know that
\( \mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{E}_i \mid \mathrm{A}\right) =\frac{\mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{A} \cap \mathrm{E}_i\right)}{\mathrm{P}(\mathrm{A})} \)
\(=\frac{\mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{E}_i\right) \mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{AlE} \mathrm{E}_i\right)}{\mathrm{P}(\mathrm{A})}(b y \) (by multiplication rule of probability)
\( =\frac{\mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{E}_i\right) \mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{AlE}_i\right)}{\sum_{j=1}^n \mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{E}_j\right) \mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{AlE}_j\right)} \)(by the result of theorem of total probability)
6.
P(A) ⋅ P(B) = \(1\over2\)⋅\(1\over3\) = \(1\over6\) = P(A∩B)
Yes, the events are independent.
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