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Published on: 23/09/2019
Probability
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1.
Find the probability of the number of doublets in three throws of a pair of dice.
2.
An urn contains 3 white and 6 red balls. Four balls are drawn one by one with replacement from the urn. Find the probability distribution of the number of red balls drawn. Also find mean and variance of the distribution.
3.
An experiment succeeds twice as often as it fails. Find the probability that in the next six trails, there will be at least 3 successes.
4.
Three persons A, B and C apply for a job of Manger in a Private company. Chances of their selection (A, B and C) are in the ratio 1 : 2 : 4. The Probabilities that A, B and c can introduce changes to improve profits of the company are 0.8, 0.5 and 0.3 respectively. If the change does not take place, find the probability that it is due to the improvement of C.
5.
Thre are two bags I and II.Bag I contains4 white and 3 red balls while another Bag II contains 3 white and 7 red balls. One ball is drawn at random from one of the bags and it is found to be white. Find the probability that it was drawn from Bag I
6.
A and B throw a pair of dice alternately.A wins the game if he gets a toatl of 7 and B wins the game if he gets a total of 10. If A starts the game, then find the probability that b wins.
7.
If A and B are two events such that:P(A) = \(\frac { 1 }{ 4 } \), P(B) = \(\frac { 1 }{ 2 } \)and \(P(A\cap B)=\frac { 1 }{ 8 } \) , Find P(not A and B).
8.
Let E and F be events with \(P(E)=\frac{3}{5}, P(F)=\frac{3}{10} \text { and } P(E \cap F)=\frac{1}{5}\) Are E and F independent?
9.
If P(A) = \(\frac { 1 }{ 2 } \), P(B) = 0, then P(A/B) is:
(A) 0
(B) \(\frac { 1 }{ 2 } \)
(C) not defined
(D) 1
10.
An instructor has a question bank consisting of 300 easy True / False questions, 200 difficult True / False questions, 500 easy multiple choice questions and 400 difficult multiple choice questions. If a question is selected at random from the question bank, what is the probability that it will be an easy question given that it is a multiple choice question?
11.
If a machine is correctly set up, it produces 90% acceptable item.If it is incorrectly set up, it produces only 40% acceptable items. Past experience shows that 80% of the setups are correctly done. If after a certain setup, the machine produces 2 acceptable items, find the probability that the machine is correctly set up.
12.
Six balls are drawn successively from an urn containing 7 red and 9 black balls.Tell whether or not the trials of drawing black balls are Bernoulli trials when after each draws the ball drawn is:
(i) replaced
(ii) not replaced in the urn.
13.
Three cards are drawn successively, without replacement from a pack of 52 well shuffled cards. What is the probability that first two cards are kings and the third card drawn is an ace?
14.
An urn contains 10 black and 5 white balls. Two balls are drawn from the urn one after the other without replacement. What is the probability that both drawn balls are black?
1.
\(P(0)=\frac { 125 }{ 216 } ,P(1)=\frac { 75 }{ 216 } ,P(2)=\frac { 15 }{ 216 } ,P(3)=\frac { 1 }{ 216 } \)
2.
(i) Total number of balls = 3 + 6 = 9
Let 'X' be the random variable when the red ball is drawn
Here 'X' takes values 0, 1, 2, 3, 4
P(X = 0) = P(No red ball)
= \(\frac { 3 }{ 9 } \times \frac { 3 }{ 9 } \times \frac { 3 }{ 9 } \times \frac { 3 }{ 9 } =\frac { 1 }{ 3 } \times \frac { 1 }{ 3 } \times \frac { 1 }{ 3 } \times \frac { 1 }{ 3 } =\frac { 1 }{ 81 } \)
P(X = 1) = P(one red ball)
= \(4\left( \frac { 6 }{ 9 } \times \frac { 3 }{ 9 } \times \frac { 3 }{ 9 } \times \frac { 3 }{ 9 } \right) =4\left( \frac { 2 }{ 3 } \times \frac { 1 }{ 3 } \times \frac { 1 }{ 3 } \times \frac { 1 }{ 3 } \right) =\frac { 8 }{ 81 } \)
P(X = 2) = P(Two red balls)
= \(6\left( \frac { 6 }{ 9 } \times \frac { 6 }{ 9 } \times \frac { 3 }{ 9 } \times \frac { 3 }{ 9 } \right) =6\left( \frac { 2 }{ 3 } \times \frac { 2 }{ 3 } \times \frac { 1 }{ 3 } \times \frac { 1 }{ 3 } \right) =\frac { 24 }{ 81 } \)
P(X = 3) = P(Tree red balls)
= \(4\left( \frac { 6 }{ 9 } \times \frac { 6 }{ 9 } \times \frac { 6 }{ 9 } \times \frac { 3 }{ 9 } \right) =6\left( \frac { 2 }{ 3 } \times \frac { 2 }{ 3 } \times \frac { 2 }{ 3 } \times \frac { 1 }{ 3 } \right) =\frac { 32 }{ 81 } \)
P(X = 4) = P(Four red balls)
= \(\left( \frac { 6 }{ 9 } \times \frac { 6 }{ 9 } \times \frac { 6 }{ 9 } \times \frac { 6 }{ 9 } \right) =\left( \frac { 2 }{ 3 } \times \frac { 2 }{ 3 } \times \frac { 2 }{ 3 } \times \frac { 2 }{ 3 } \right) =\frac { 16 }{ 81 } \)
Hence, the probability distribution is:
| X: | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| P(X): | \(\frac { 1 }{ 81 } \) | \(\frac { 8 }{ 81 } \) | \(\frac { 24 }{ 81 } \) | \(\frac { 32 }{ 81 } \) | \(\frac { 16 }{ 81 } \) |
(ii) Mean \(\sum { XP(X)=0 } \times \frac { 1 }{ 81 } +1\times \frac { 8 }{ 81 } +2\times \frac { 24 }{ 81 } +3\times \frac { 32 }{ 81 } +4\times \frac { 16 }{ 81 } \)
\(=0+\frac { 8 }{ 81 } +\frac { 48 }{ 81 } +\frac { 96 }{ 81 } +\frac { 64 }{ 81 } =\frac { 216 }{ 81 } =\frac { 8 }{ 3 } \)
Variance = \(\sum { { X }^{ 2 }P(X)-{ Mean }^{ 2 } } \)
\(=0\times \frac { 1 }{ 81 } +1\times \frac { 8 }{ 81 } +4\times \frac { 24 }{ 81 } +9\times \frac { 32 }{ 81 } +16\times \frac { 16 }{ 81 } -{ \left( \frac { 8 }{ 3 } \right) }^{ 2 }\)
\(=\frac { 648 }{ 81 } -\frac { 64 }{ 9 } =\frac { 8 }{ 9 } \)
3.
Let 'p' be the probability of success and 'q' be tha probability of failure.
Then p + q = 1 and p = 3q
Solving \(p=\frac { 3 }{ 4 } ,q=\frac { 1 }{ 4 } \) and n = 5
Required probability = \(P(X\ge 3)=P(3)+P(4)+P(5)\)
= \(^{ 5 }{ C }_{ 3 }{ q }^{ 2 }{ p }^{ 3 }+^{ 5 }{ C }_{ 4 }{ q }^{ 1 }{ p }^{ 4 }+^{ 5 }{ C }_{ 5 }{ q }^{ 0 }{ p }^{ 5 }\)
= \(10{ \left( \frac { 1 }{ 4 } \right) }^{ 2 }{ \left( \frac { 3 }{ 4 } \right) }^{ 3 }+5{ \left( \frac { 1 }{ 4 } \right) }{ \left( \frac { 3 }{ 4 } \right) }^{ 4 }+\left( 1 \right) \left( 1 \right) { \left( \frac { 3 }{ 4 } \right) }^{ 5 }\)
\(={ \left( \frac { 3 }{ 4 } \right) }^{ 3 }\left[ \frac { 10 }{ 16 } +\frac { 15 }{ 16 } +\frac { 9 }{ 16 } \right] =\frac { 34 }{ 16 } { \left( \frac { 3 }{ 4 } \right) }^{ 3 }\)
4.
Let us define the following events
A = Selecting person A
B = Selecting person B
C = Selecting person C
\(P(A)=\frac{1}{1+2+4}, P(B)=\frac{2}{1+2+4}\)
and \(P(C)=\frac{4}{1+2+4}\)
\(\Rightarrow \quad P(A)=\frac{1}{7}, P(B)=\frac{2}{7} \text { and } P(C)=\frac{4}{7}\)
Let E = Event to introduce the changes in their profit.
Also, given \(P\left(\frac{E}{A}\right)=0.8, P\left(\frac{E}{B}\right)=0.5 \text { and } P\left(\frac{E}{C}\right)=0.3\)
\(\begin{aligned}
\Rightarrow P\left(\frac{\bar{E}}{A}\right)=1-0.8=0.2, P\left(\frac{\bar{E}}{B}\right)=1-0.5=0.5
\end{aligned}\)
and \(\begin{aligned}
\text { and } P\left(\frac{\bar{E}}{C}\right)=1-0.3=0.7
\end{aligned}\)
The probability that change does not take place by the appointment of C, \(P\left(\frac{C}{\bar{E}}\right)=\frac{P(C) \cdot P\left(\frac{\bar{E}}{C}\right)}{P(A) \times P\left(\frac{\bar{E}}{A}\right)+P(B) \times P\left(\frac{\bar{E}}{B}\right)+P(C) \times P\left(\frac{\bar{E}}{C}\right)}\)
\(\begin{aligned}
=\frac{\frac{4}{7} \times 0.7}{\frac{1}{7} \times 0.2+\frac{2}{7} \times 0.5+\frac{4}{7} \times 0.7}
\end{aligned}\)
\(\begin{aligned}
=\frac{2.8 \times 7}{(0.2+1.0+2.8) \times 7}=\frac{2.8}{4}=0.7
\end{aligned}\)
5.
Let the events be:
E1 : Ball drawn from Bag I
E2 : Ball drawn from Bag II and
A : Ball drawn is white
We have to find P(E1/A)
Since both the bags are eaually likely to be selected,
\(P({ E }_{ 1 })=P({ E }_{ 2 })=\frac { 1 }{ 2 } \)
Also \(P(A/{ E }_{ 1 })=\frac { 4 }{ 7 } ,P(A/{ E }_{ 2 })=\frac { 3 }{ 10 } \)
By Bayes' Theorem,
\(P({ E }_{ 1 }/A)=\frac { P({ E }_{ 1 })P(A/{ E }_{ 1 }) }{ P({ E }_{ 1 })P(A/{ E }_{ 1 })+P({ E }_{ 2 })P(A/{ E }_{ 2 }) } \)
\(=\frac { \left( \frac { 1 }{ 2 } \right) \left( \frac { 4 }{ 7 } \right) }{ \left( \frac { 1 }{ 2 } \right) \left( \frac { 4 }{ 7 } \right) +\left( \frac { 1 }{ 2 } \right) \left( \frac { 3 }{ 10 } \right) } =\frac { \frac { 2 }{ 7 } }{ \frac { 2 }{ 7 } +\frac { 3 }{ 20 } } \)
\(=\frac { 2 }{ 7 } \times \frac { 140 }{ 40+21 } =\frac { 40 }{ 61 } \)
6.
Total number of outcomes = 36
For A, favourable outcomes are:
{(1, 6), (6, 1), (5, 2), (3, 4), (4, 3)}
P(A wins) = P(A) = \(\frac { 6 }{ 36 } =\frac { 1 }{ 6 } \)
P(A loses) = \(P(\overset { \_ }{ A } )=1-\frac { 1 }{ 6 } =\frac { 5 }{ 6 } \)
For B, favourable outcomes are {(4, 6), (6, 4), (5, 5)}
P(B wins) = P(B) = \(\frac { 3 }{ 36 } =\frac { 1 }{ 12 } \)
P(B loese) = \(P(\overset { \_ }{ B } )=1-\frac { 1 }{ 12 } =\frac { 11 }{ 12 } \)
Required probability
= \(P(\overset { \_ }{ A } B)+P(\overset { \_ }{ A } \overset { \_ }{ B } \overset { \_ }{ A } )+P(\overset { \_ }{ A } \overset { \_ }{ B } \overset { \_ }{ A } \overset { \_ }{ B } \overset { \_ }{ A } B)+.......\)
\(P(\overset { \_ }{ A } )P(B)+P(\overset { \_ }{ A) } \overset { \_ }{ P(B } )P(\overset { \_ }{ A } )+P(\overset { \_ }{ A } )P(\overset { \_ }{ B } )P(\overset { \_ }{ A } )P(\overset { \_ }{ B } )P(\overset { \_ }{ A } )P(B)+.......\)
\(=\frac { 5 }{ 6 } \times \frac { 1 }{ 12 } +\frac { 5 }{ 6 } \times \frac { 11 }{ 12 } +\frac { 5 }{ 6 } \times \frac { 1 }{ 12 } +\frac { 5 }{ 6 } \times \frac { 11 }{ 12 } +\frac { 5 }{ 6 } \times \frac { 11 }{ 12 } +\frac { 5 }{ 6 } \times \frac { 1 }{ 12 } +......|G.P\)
\(=\frac { \frac { 5 }{ 6 } \times \frac { 1 }{ 12 } }{ 1-\frac { 5 }{ 6 } \times \frac { 11 }{ 12 } } =\frac { 5 }{ 17 } \)
7.
P(not A and not B)
\(=P(\overset { - }{ A } \cap \overset { - }{ B } )=P(A\cup B)\)
\(\therefore \) \(P(\overset { - }{ A } \cap \overset { - }{ B } )=1-P(A\cup B)\)
\(P(A\cup B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A\cap B)\)
\(=\frac { 1 }{ 4 } +\frac { 1 }{ 2 } -\frac { 1 }{ 8 } \)
\(=\frac { 2+4-1 }{ 8 } =\frac { 5 }{ 8 } \)
\(P(A\cap B)=1-\frac { 5 }{ 8 } =\frac { 3 }{ 8 } \)
8.
Here \(P(E\cap F)=\frac { 1 }{ 5 } \)
P(E)P(F) = \(\frac { 3 }{ 5 } \times \frac { 3 }{ 10 } =\frac { 9 }{ 50 } \)
Thus \(P(E\cap F)\neq P(E)P(F)\)
Hence, E and F are not independent.
9.
Part (C) is the correct answer
Reason:\(P(A/B)=\frac { P(A\cap B) }{ P(B) } \)
\(=\frac { P(A\cap B) }{ 0 } \)
which is not defined
10.
We have
| Easy | Difficult | Total | |
| True/False | 300 | 200 | 500 |
| Multiple choice | 500 | 400 | 900 |
| Total | 800 | 600 | 1400 |
LET E, D,T and M denote Easy, Diffcult,True/False and Multiple choice question respectively.
Total number of questions = 1400
Number of easy multiple choice questions = 500
\(\therefore \)\(P(E\cap M)=\frac { 500 }{ 1400 } \)
Total number of multiple choice questions = 900
\(\therefore \)\(P(M)=\frac { 900 }{ 1400 } \)
\(\therefore \)\(P(E/M)=\frac { P(E\cap M) }{ P(M) } \)
\(=\frac { \frac { 500 }{ 1400 } }{ \frac { 900 }{ 1400 } } =\frac { 5 }{ 9 } \)
11.
Let A be the event that the machine produces 2 acceptable items.
Also let B1 represent the event of correct set up and B2 represent the event of incorrect setup.
Now \(\mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{B}_1\right) =0.8, \mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{B}_2\right)=0.2 \)
P(A|B1 ) = 0.9 × 0.9 and P(A|B2 ) = 0.4 × 0.4
Therefore
\({\mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{B}_1 \mid \mathrm{A}\right)}=\frac{\mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{B}_1\right) \mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{A} \mid \mathrm{B}_1\right)}{\mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{B}_1\right) \mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{A} \mid \mathrm{B}_1\right) +\mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{B}_2\right) \mathrm{P}\left({\left.\mathrm{A} \mid \mathrm{B}_2\right)}\right.}\)
\(=\frac{0.8 \times 0.9 \times 0.9}{0.8 \times 0.9 \times 0.9+0.2 \times 0.4 \times 0.4}=\frac{648}{680}=0.95 \)
12.
(i) The number of trials is finite. When the drawing is done with replacement, the probability of success (say, red ball) is p = \(\frac{7}{16}\)which is same for all six trials (draws). Hence, the drawing of balls with replacements are Bernoulli trials.
(ii) When the drawing is done without replacement, the probability of success (i.e., red ball) in first trial is \(\frac{7}{16}\)in 2nd trial is \(\frac{6}{15}\) if the first ball drawn is red or \(\frac{7}{15}\) if the first ball drawn is black and so on. Clearly, the probability of success is not same for all trials, hence the trials are not Bernoulli trials
13.
Let K denote the event that the card drawn is king and A be the event that the card drawn is an ace.
Clearly, we have to find P (KKA)
Now P(K) = \(\frac { 4 }{ 52 } \)
Also, P (K|K) is the probability of second king with the condition that one king has already been drawn. Now there are three kings in (52 − 1) = 51 cards.
Therefore P(K/K) = \(\frac { 3 }{ 51 } \)
Lastly, P(A|KK) is the probability of third drawn card to be an ace, with the condition that two kings have already been drawn. Now there are four aces in left 50 cards.
Therefore P(A|KK) =\(\frac { 4 }{ 50 } \)
By multiplication law of probability, we have
Now P(KKA) = P(K) P(K/K) P(A/KK)
= \(\frac { 4 }{ 52 } \times \frac { 3 }{ 51 } \times \frac { 4 }{ 50 } =\frac { 2 }{ 5525 } \)
14.
Let E and F denote respectively the events that first and second ball drawn are black. We have to find P(E ∩ F) or P (EF).
Now P(E) = P (black ball in first draw)\(=\frac{10}{15}\)
Also given that the first ball drawn is black, i.e., event E has occurred, now there are 9 black balls and five white balls left in the urn. Therefore, the probability that the second ball drawn is black, given that the ball in the first draw is black, is nothing but the conditional probability of F given that E has occurred.
\(\text { i.e. }P(F \mid E)=\frac{9}{14} \)
By multiplication rule of probability, we have
P (E ∩ F) = P(E) P(F|E)
\(=\frac{10}{15} \times \frac{9}{14}=\frac{3}{7}\)
Multiplication rule of probability for more than two events If E, F and G are three events of sample space, we have
P(E ∩ F ∩ G) = P(E) P(F|E) P(G|(E ∩ F)) = P(E) P(F|E) P(G|EF)
Similarly, the multiplication rule of probability can be extended for four or more events.
The following example illustrates the extension of multiplication rule of probability for three events.
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