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Published on: 05/10/2019
Probability
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1.
A husband and a wife appear in an interview for two vacancies for the same post. The probability of husbands selection is \(1\over7\) and that of wife's selection is \(1\over5\). What is the probability that
(i) both will be selected
(ii) only one of them will be selected
(iii) none will be selected?
2.
Given three identical boxes I, II and III, each containing two coins. In box I, both coins are gold coins, in box II, both are silver coins and in the box III, there is one gold and one silver coin. A person chooses a box at random and takes out a coin. If the coin is of gold, what is the probability that the other coin in the box is also of gold?
3.
Probabilities of solving a specific problem independently by A and B are \(1\over2\) and \(1\over3\) respectively. If both try to solve the problem independently, find the probability that
(i) the problem is solved
(ii) exactly one of them solves the problem.
4.
From a lot of 30 bulbs which includes 6 defectives, a samole of 4 bulbs is drawn at random with replacement. Find the mean and variance of the number of defective bulbs.
5.
A pair of dice is thrown 4 times. If getting a doublet is considered a success find the mean and variance of the number of successes.
6.
A die is throewn again and again until three sixes are obtained. Find the probability of obtaining the third six in the sixth throw of the die.
7.
The probabilities of A, B, C solving a problem are \(\frac { 1 }{ 3 } ,\frac { 2 }{ 7 } and\frac { 3 }{ 8 } \) respectively. If all the three try to solve the problem simultaneously, find the probability that exactly one of them can solve it.
8.
In a bulb factory machines A, B and C manufacture 60%, 30% and 10% bulbs respectively. 1%, 2% and 3% of the bulbs produced respectively by A, B and C are found to be defective. Find the probability that this bulb was produced by the machine A.
9.
12 cards, numbered 1 to 12, are placed in box mixed up thoroughly and then a card is drawn at random from the box. If it is known that the number on the drawn card is more than 3, find the probability that it is an even number.
10.
A pair of dice is thrown 4 times. If getting a doublet is considered a success, find the probability distribution of the number of success.
11.
Two numbers are selected at random (without replacement) from the first six positive integers.Let x denote the larger of the two numbers obtained.Find the probability distribution of random variable x and hence find the mean of the distribution.
12.
A card from a pack of 52 cards is lost. From the remaining cards of the pack, two cards at random and are found to be hearts. Find the probability of the missing card to be a heart
13.
Five bad oranges are accidently mixed with 20 good ones. If four oranges are drawn one by one successively with replacement, then find the probability distribution of number of bad oranges drawn. Hence, find the mean and variance of the distribution.
14.
An urn contains 3 white and 6 red balls. Four balls are drawn one by one with replacement from the urn. Find the probability distribution of the number of red balls drawn. Also, find mean and variance of distribution.
15.
Find the mean, the variance and the standard deviation of the number of doublets in three throws of a pair of dice.
16.
A bag contains 4 red and 4 black balls, another bag contains 2 red and 6 black balls. One of the two bags is selected at random and two balls are drawn at random (without replacement) from the bag which are both found to be red. Find the probability that the balls are drawn from the first bag.
17.
An urn contains 4 balls. Two balls are drawn at random from the urn (without replacement) and are found to be white, What is the probability that all the four balls in the urn are white?
18.
A card from a pack of 52 playing cards is lost. From the remaining cards of the pack, three cards are drawn at random (without replacement) and are found to be all spades. Find the probability of the lost card being a spade.
19.
A man is known to speak the truth 3 out of 5 times. He throws a die and reports that it is 1. Find the probability that it is actually 1.
20.
An insurance company insured 2,000 cyclists, 4,000 scooter drivers and 6,000 motorbike drivers. The probability of an accident involving a cyclist, scooter driver and a motorbike driver are 0.01, 0.03 and 0.15 respectively. One of the insured persons meets with an accident. What is the probability that he is a scooter driver?
Which mode of transport would you suggest to a student and why?
1.
Here \(P(A)=\frac { 1 }{ 7 } ,P(B)=\frac { 1 }{ 5 } \)
\(P(\overset { \_ }{ A) } =1-\frac { 1 }{ 7 } =\frac { 6 }{ 7 } \)
\(P(\overset { \_ }{ B } )=1-\frac { 1 }{ 5 } =\frac { 4 }{ 5 } \)
Required probability =\(P(A\overset { \_ }{ B } )+P(\overset { \_ }{ A } B)=P(A)P(\overset { \_ }{ B } )+P(\overset { \_ }{ A } )P(B)\)
= \(\frac { 1 }{ 7 } \times \frac { 4 }{ 5 } +\frac { 6 }{ 7 } \times \frac { 1 }{ 5 } \)
\(=\frac { 4 }{ 35 } +\frac { 6 }{ 35 } =\frac { 10 }{ 35 } =\frac { 2 }{ 7 } \)
2.
Let E1 , E2 and E3 be the events that boxes I, II and III are chosen, respectively.
Then P(E1) = P(E2) = P(E3 ) = \(\frac { 1 }{ 3 } \)
Also, let A be the event that ‘the coin drawn is of gold’
Then P(A|E1) = P(a gold coin from bag I) = \(\frac { 2 }{ 2 } \)= 1,
P(A|E2) = P(a gold coin from bag II) = 0 and
p(A|E3) = P(a gold coin from bag III) = \(\frac { 1 }{ 2 } \)
Now, the probability that the other coin in the box is of gold = the probability that gold coin is drawn from the box I.
= P(E1 |A)
By Bayes' theorem, we know that
P(E1|A) \(=\frac { P({ E }_{ 1 })P(A|{ E }_{ 1 }) }{ P({ E }_{ 1 })P(A|{ E }_{ 1 })+P({ E }_{ 2 })P(A|{ E }_{ 2 })+P({ E }_{ 3 })P(A|{ E }_{ 3 }) } \)
= \(\frac { \frac { 1 }{ 3 } \times1}{ \frac { 1 }{ 3 } \times1 +\left( \frac { 1 }{ 3 } \right) \times 0 +\frac { 1 }{ 3 } \times \frac { 1 }{ 2 } } =\frac { 2 }{ 3 } \)
3.
(i)\(\text { Given, }P(A)=\frac{1}{2} ; P(B)=\frac{1}{3} ; \)
\(P(\bar{A})=\frac{1}{2} ; P(\bar{B})=\frac{2}{3}\)
(i) P(problem is solved)
= peat least one solves the problem)
\(=1-P(\text { none solves })=1-P(\bar{A} \bar{B}) \)
\(=1-\frac{1}{2} \times \frac{2}{3}=1-\frac{1}{3}=\frac{2}{3} \)
(ii) P(exactly one of them solves the problem)
\(=P(A \bar{B} \text { or } \bar{A} B)=\frac{1}{2} \times \frac{2}{3}+\frac{1}{2} \times \frac{1}{3}=\frac{3}{6}=\frac{1}{2}\)
4.
Let X = Number of defective bulbs out of 4 bulbs drawn
with replacement X = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4
p = Probability of defective bulb \(=\frac{6}{30}=\frac{1}{5}\)
q = Probability of good bulb = 4/5
\(\begin{array}{c|c|c|c|c|c} \hline X=x_{i} & 0 & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 \\ \hline P(x)=p_{i} & \left(\frac{4}{5}\right)^{4} & 4 \cdot \frac{1}{5} \cdot \frac{64}{125} & 6 \cdot \frac{1}{25} \cdot \frac{16}{25} & 4 \cdot \frac{1}{125} \cdot \frac{4}{5} & \left(\frac{1}{5}\right)^{4} \\ & =\frac{256}{625} & =\frac{25 \hat{p}}{625} & =\frac{96}{625} & =\frac{16}{625} & =\frac{1}{625} \\ \hline \end{array}\)
Mean \((\mu)=\Sigma p_{i} x_{i}\)
\(=0 \times \frac{256}{625}+1 \times \frac{256}{625}+2 \times \frac{96}{625}+3 \times \frac{16}{625}+4 \times \frac{1}{625}\)
\(=\frac{4}{5}\)
5.
mean = 2/3
variance = 5/9
6.
Probability of getting a six = \(\frac { 1 }{ 6 } \)
Probability of not getting a six = \(1-\frac { 1 }{ 6 } =\frac { 5 }{ 6 } \)
P(obtaining the third six in sixth throw)
= {P (obtaining two sixes in the first five throws}\(\times \frac { 1 }{ 6 } \)
= \(^{ 5 }{ C }_{ 2 }{ \left( \frac { 5 }{ 6 } \right) }^{ 3 }{ \left( \frac { 1 }{ 6 } \right) }^{ 2 }\times \frac { 1 }{ 6 } =\frac { 625 }{ 23328 } \)
7.
Given \(P(A)=\frac { 1 }{ 3 } ,P(\overset { \_ }{ A } )=1-\frac { 1 }{ 3 } =\frac { 2 }{ 3 } \)
\(P(B)=\frac { 2 }{ 7 } ,P(\overset { \_ }{ B } )=1-\frac { 2 }{ 7 } =\frac { 5 }{ 7 } \)
and \(P(C)=\frac { 3 }{ 8 } ,P(\overset { \_ }{ C } )=1-\frac { 3 }{ 8 } =\frac { 5 }{ 8 } \)
All the three solve the problem simultaneously independently.
We can have case I: A can solve Band C can not solve
Case II : B can solve A and C can not solve
Case III: C can solve A and B can not solve.
P(only one solves) \(P(A\overset { \_ }{ B } \overset { \_ }{ C } )+P(\overset { \_ }{ A } B\overset { - }{ C } )+P(\overset { \_ }{ A } \overset { \_ }{ B } C)\)
= \(P(A)P(\overset { \_ }{ B } )P(\overset { \_ }{ C } )+P(\overset { \_ }{ A } )P(B\overset { - }{ )P(C } )+P(\overset { \_ }{ A } )P(\overset { \_ }{ B } )P(C)\)
= \(\left( \frac { 1 }{ 3 } \right) \left( \frac { 5 }{ 7 } \right) \left( \frac { 5 }{ 8 } \right) +\left( \frac { 2 }{ 3 } \right) \left( \frac { 2 }{ 7 } \right) \left( \frac { 5 }{ 8 } \right) +\left( \frac { 2 }{ 3 } \right) \left( \frac { 5 }{ 7 } \right) \left( \frac { 3 }{ 8 } \right) \)
= \(\frac { 25 }{ 168 } +\frac { 20 }{ 168 } +\frac { 30 }{ 168 } =\frac { 75 }{ 168 } =\frac { 25 }{ 56 } \)
8.
\(\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|} \hline \text { Machine } & \boldsymbol{A} & \boldsymbol{B} & \boldsymbol{C} \\ \hline \text { Production } & 60 \% & 30 \% & 10 \% \\ \hline \text { Defective } & 1 \% & 2 \% & 3 \% \\ \hline \end{array}\)
\(P(A)=\frac{60}{100}=\frac{6}{10}, P(B)=\frac{30}{100}=\frac{3}{10}, P(C)=\frac{10}{100}=\frac{1}{10}\)
E: bulb is defective
\(P(E / A)=\frac{1}{100}, P(E / B)=\frac{2}{100}, P(E / C)=\frac{3}{100}\)
Using Bayes' Theorem, probability that defective bulbs was produced by machine A,
\(\begin{array}{r} P(A / E)=\frac{P(A) \cdot P(E / A)}{P(A) \cdot P(E / A)+P(B) \cdot P(E / B)} \\ +P(C) \cdot P(E / C) \end{array}\)
\(=\frac{\frac{6}{10} \times \frac{1}{100}}{\frac{6}{10} \times \frac{1}{100}+\frac{3}{10} \times \frac{2}{100}+\frac{1}{10} \times \frac{3}{100}}=\frac{2}{5}\)
9.
Total cards are 12
A : number drawn is more than 3, i.e. 4, 5, 6, ..., 12.
B : getting an even number, i.e. 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12.
\(A \cap B: 4,6,8,10,12 \)
\(P(B / A)=\frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)}=\frac{5 / 12}{9 / 12}=\frac{5}{9} .
\)
10.
| X | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| P(x) | 625/1296 | 500/1296 | 150/1296 | 20/1296 | 1/1296 |
11.
Total number of ways of selecting two numbers = 6C2 = 15
Values of x (larger of the two) can be 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
\(P(x=2)={1\over 15}\)
\(P(x=3)={2\over 15}\)
\(P(x=4)={3\over 15}\)
\(P(x=5)={4\over 15}\)
and \(P(x=6)={5\over 15}\)
Distribution can be written as
| x | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P(x) | \(1\over 15\) | \(2\over 15\) | \(3\over 15\) | \(4\over 15\) | \(5\over 15\) |
| xP(x) | \(2\over 15\) | \(6\over 15\) | \(12\over 15\) | \(20\over 15\) | \(30\over 15\) |
Mean \(=\sum xP(x)={70\over 15}={14\over 3}\)
12.
Let C1, C2, C3, C4 be the events that the lost card is of heart, spades, diamond or club respectively.
Obviously P(C1) = P(C2) = P(C3) = P(C4)
\(={13\over 52}={1\over 4}\)
Let S be the event of drawing two cards of heart from the remaining 51 cards.We wish to find \(P\left(C_1\over S\right)\)
Now \(P\left(C_1\over S\right)\) is the probability of drawing two heart cards from 51 cards given that one heart card is lost
\(={^{12}C_2\over ^{51}C_2}={12\times11\over 1\times2}\times{1\times2\over 51\times50}={22\over 425}\)
\(P\left( S\over C_3\right)=P\left( S\over C_3\right)=P\left( S\over C_4\right)={^{13}C_2\over ^{51}C_2}\)
\(={13\times12\over 1\times2}\times{1\times2\over 51\times50}={26\over 425}\)
By Bayes' Theorem
\(P\left(C_1\over S\right)={P(C_1).P\left(S\over C_1\right)\over \sum P(C_1).P\left(S\over C_1\right)}\)
\(={{1\over4}\times{22\over 425}\over{1\over 4}\times{22\over 425}+{1\over 4}\times{26\over 425}+{1\over4}\times{26\over 425}}\)
\(={22\over 22+26+26+26}\)
\(={11\over 50}\)
13.
Total number of oranges = 25
number of good oranges = 20
number of bad oranges = 5
Probability of getting a bad orange,
\(P(B)=\frac { 5 }{ 25 } =\frac { 1 }{ 5 } \)
Now \(p=\frac { 1 }{ 5 } \)
\(\\ q=1-p=\frac { 4 }{ 5 } \)
Let X be the random variable of "Number of bad oranges".
\(\Rightarrow X=0,1,2,3,4\)
\(P(X=0)={ n }_{ { C }_{ r } }{ \left( p \right) }^{ n-r }{ \left( q \right) }^{ r }\)
\(P(X=0)={ 4 }_{ { C }_{ 0 } }{ \left( \frac { 4 }{ 5 } \right) }^{ 4 }=\frac { 256 }{ 625 } \)
\(P(X=1)=4\times \frac { 64 }{ 125 } \times \frac { 1 }{ 5 } =\frac { 256 }{ 625 } \)
\(P(X=2)={ 4 }_{ { C }_{ 2 } }{ \left( \frac { 4 }{ 5 } \right) }^{ 2 }{ \left( \frac { 1 }{ 5 } \right) }^{ 2 }\)
\(=6\times \frac { 16 }{ 625 } =\frac { 96 }{ 625 } \)
\(P(X=3)={ 4 }_{ { C }_{ 3 } }\left( \frac { 4 }{ 5 } \right) { \left( \frac { 1 }{ 5 } \right) }^{ 3 }\)
\(=4\times \frac { 4 }{ 625 } =\frac { 16 }{ 625 } \)
\(P(X=4)={ 4 }_{ { C }_{ 4 } }{ \left( \frac { 4 }{ 5 } \right) }^{ 0 }{ \left( \frac { 1 }{ 5 } \right) }^{ 4 }\)
\(=\frac { 1 }{ 625 } \)
\(\therefore\) Probability distribution is
| X | P(X) | XP(X) | X2P(X) |
| 0 | 256/625 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 256/625 | 256/625 | 256/625 |
| 2 | 96/625 | 192/625 | 384/625 |
| 3 | 16/625 | 48/625 | 144/625 |
| 4 | 1/625 | 4/625 | 16/625 |
\(\therefore Mean=\sum { XP(X) } \)
\(=\frac { 500 }{ 625 } =\frac { 20 }{ 25 } =\frac { 4 }{ 5 } \)
\(Var.\quad (X)=E({ X }^{ 2 })-[E(X){ ] }^{ 2 }\)
\(=\frac { 800 }{ 625 } -\frac { 16 }{ 25 } \)
\(Var.(X)=\frac { 32 }{ 25 } -\frac { 16 }{ 25 } =\frac { 16 }{ 25 } \)
14.
Let X is the number of red balls
So, X can take value 0, 1, 2, 3, 4
\(\therefore p=P(red\quad ball)=\frac { 6 }{ 9 } =\frac { 2 }{ 3 } \)
\(\therefore \ q=1-p=\frac { 1 }{ 3 } \)
Case 1: When X = 0, all white balls
\(P(X=0)={ 4 }_{ { C }_{ 0 } }{ \left( \frac { 1 }{ 3 } \right) }^{ 4-0 }{ \left( \frac { 2 }{ 3 } \right) }^{ 0 }=\frac { 1 }{ 81 } \)
Case 2: When X = 1, 3 white and 1 red balls
\(P(X=1)={ 4 }_{ { C }_{ 1 } }{ \left( \frac { 1 }{ 3 } \right) }^{ 4-1 }{ \left( \frac { 2 }{ 3 } \right) }^{ 1 }\)
\(=4\times \frac { 1 }{ 27 } \times \frac { 2 }{ 3 } =\frac { 8 }{ 81 } \)
Case 3: When X = 2, 2 white and 2 red balls
\(P(x=2)={ 4 }_{ { C }_{ 2 } }{ \left( \frac { 1 }{ 3 } \right) }^{ 4-2 }{ \left( \frac { 2 }{ 3 } \right) }^{ 2 }\)
\(=6\times \frac { 1 }{ 9 } \times \frac { 4 }{ 9 } =\frac { 24 }{ 81 } \)
Case 4: When X = 3, 1 white and 3 red balls
\(P(X=3)={ 4 }_{ { C }_{ 3 } }{ \left( \frac { 1 }{ 3 } \right) }^{ 4-3 }{ \left( \frac { 2 }{ 3 } \right) }^{ 3 }\)
\(=4\times \frac { 1 }{ 3 } \times \frac { 8 }{ 27 } =\frac { 32 }{ 81 } \)
Case 5: When X = 4, 4 red balls
P(X = 4) = \({ 4 }_{ { C }_{ 4 } }{ \left( \frac { 1 }{ 3 } \right) }^{ 4-4 }{ \left( \frac { 2 }{ 3 } \right) }^{ 4 }\)
\(=1\times 1\times \frac { 16 }{ 81 } =\frac { 16 }{ 81 } \)
\(\therefore \) the probability distribution of number of red ball is:
| X | P(X) | XP(X) | X2P(X) |
| 0 | \(\frac { 1 }{ 81 } \) | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | \(\frac { 8 }{ 81 } \) | \(\frac { 8 }{ 81 } \) | \(\frac { 8 }{ 81 } \) |
| 2 | \(\frac { 24 }{ 81 } \) | \(\frac { 48 }{ 81 } \) | \(\frac { 96 }{ 81 } \) |
| 3 | \(\frac { 32 }{ 81 } \) | \(\frac { 96 }{ 81 } \) | \(\frac { 288 }{ 81 } \) |
| 4 | \(\frac { 16 }{ 81 } \) | \(\frac { 64 }{ 81 } \) | \(\frac { 256 }{ 81 } \) |
| \(\sum { P(X)=1 } \) | \(\sum { XP(X)=\frac { 216 }{ 81 } } \) \(=\frac { 8 }{ 3 } \) |
\(\sum { { X }^{ 2 }P(X)=\frac { 648 }{ 81 } } \) =8 |
\(Mean=\sum { XP(X)=\frac { 8 }{ 3 } } \)
\(Var\ (X)=\sum { { X }^{ 2 }P(X)-\{ \sum { XP(X){ \} }^{ 2 } } } \)
\(=8-{ \left( \frac { 8 }{ 3 } \right) }^{ 2 }=8-\frac { 64 }{ 9 } =\frac { 8 }{ 9 } =0.88\)
15.
Let X represent the random variable,
then X = 0, 1, 2, 3
\(p=\frac { 1 }{ 6 } ,q=1-p\)
\(q=\frac { 5 }{ 6 } \)
\(P(X=0)=P(r=0)={ 3 }_{ { C }_{ 0 } }{ \left( \frac { 1 }{ 6 } \right) }^{ 0 }{ \left( \frac { 5 }{ 6 } \right) }^{ 3 }=\frac { 125 }{ 216 } \)
\(P(X=1)=P(r=1)={ 3 }_{ { C }_{ 1 } }{ \left( \frac { 1 }{ 6 } \right) }^{ 1 }{ \left( \frac { 5 }{ 6 } \right) }^{ 2 }=\frac { 75 }{ 216 } \)
\(P(X=2)=P(r=2)={ 3 }_{ { C }_{ 2 } }{ \left( \frac { 1 }{ 6 } \right) }^{ 2 }{ \left( \frac { 5 }{ 6 } \right) }^{ 1 }=\frac { 15 }{ 216 } \)
\(P(X=3)=P(r=3)={ 3 }_{ { C }_{ 3 } }{ \left( \frac { 1 }{ 6 } \right) }^{ 3 }{ \left( \frac { 5 }{ 6 } \right) }^{ 0 }=\frac { 1 }{ 216 } \)
| Xi | Pi | xiPi | (xi)2 pi |
| 0 | \(\frac { 125 }{ 216 } \) | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | \(\frac { 75 }{ 216 } \) | \(\frac { 75 }{ 216 } \) | \(\frac { 75 }{ 216 } \) |
| 2 | \(\frac { 15 }{ 216 } \) | \(\frac { 30 }{ 216 } \) | \(\frac { 60 }{ 216 } \) |
| 3 | \(\frac { 1 }{ 216 } \) | \(\frac { 3 }{ 216 } \) | \(\frac { 9 }{ 216 } \) |
| Total | \(\frac { 1 }{ 2 } \) | \(\frac { 2 }{ 3 } \) |
\(Mean=\sum { { x }_{ i }{ p }_{ i }=\frac { 1 }{ 2 } } \)
\(Variance(X)=\sum { { ({ x }_{ i }) }^{ 2 }{ p }_{ i }-{ (\sum { { x }_{ i }{ p }_{ i } } ) }^{ 2 } } \)
\(=\frac { 2 }{ 3 } -{ \left( \frac { 1 }{ 2 } \right) }^{ 2 }\)
\(=\frac { 2 }{ 3 } -\frac { 1 }{ 4 } =\frac { 5 }{ 12 } \)
Standard Deviation
\(\sqrt { Variance(X) } =\frac { \sqrt { 15 } }{ 6 } \)
16.
Let E1: Event selecting bag with 4 red & 4 black balls
E2: Event selecting bag with 2 red & 6 black balls
A: Event selecting 2 red balls without replacement
Then, P(E1) = P(E2) = \(\frac { 1 }{ 2 } \)
\(P(A/{ E }_{ 1 })=\frac { 4_{ C_{ 2 } } }{ { 8 }_{ C_{ 2 } } } =\frac { 3 }{ 14 } ,\)
\(P(A/{ E }_{ 2 })=\frac { { 2 }_{ { C }_{ 2 } } }{ { 8 }_{ { C }_{ 2 } } } =\frac { 1 }{ 28 } .\)
\(P\left( \frac { { E }_{ 1 } }{ A } \right) =\frac { P({ E }_{ 1 }).P(A/{ E }_{ 1 }) }{ P({ E }_{ 1 }).P(A/{ E }_{ 1 })+P({ E }_{ 2 }).P(A/{ E }_{ 2 }) } \)
\(=\frac { \frac { 1 }{ 2 } .\frac { 3 }{ 14 } }{ \frac { 1 }{ 2 } .\frac { 3 }{ 14 } +\frac { 1 }{ 2 } .\frac { 1 }{ 28 } } =\frac { 6 }{ 7 } \)
17.
Let E1: urn has 2 white balls
E2: urn has 3 white balls
E3: urn has 4 white balls
A: 2 balls drawn are white
P(E1) = P(E2) = P(E3) = \(\frac { 1 }{ 3 } \)
P(A/E1)=\(\frac { { 2 }_{ { C }_{ 2 } } }{ { 4 }_{ { C }_{ 2 } } } =\frac { 1 }{ 6, } \)
\(P(A/{ E }_{ 2 })=\frac { { 2 }_{ { C }_{ 2 } } }{ { 4 }_{ C_{ 2 } } } =\frac { 1 }{ 6 } ,\)
\(P(A/{ E }_{ 2 })=\frac { { 3 }_{ { C }_{ 2 } } }{ { 4 }_{ C_{ 2 } } } =\frac { 1 }{ 2 } ,\)
\(P(A/{ E }_{ 3 })=\frac { { 4 }_{ { C }_{ 2 } } }{ { 4 }_{ { C }_{ 2 } } } =1\)
\(\therefore P({ E }_{ 3 }/A)\)
\(=\frac { { P(E }_{ 3 }).P(A/{ E }_{ 3 }) }{ P({ E }_{ 1 })P(A/{ E }_{ 1 })+P({ E }_{ 2 })P(A/{ E }_{ 2 })+P({ E }_{ 3 })P(A/{ E }_{ 3 }) } \)
\(=\frac { \frac { 1 }{ 3 } .1 }{ \frac { 1 }{ 3 } .\frac { 1 }{ 6 } +\frac { 1 }{ 3 } .\frac { 1 }{ 2 } +\frac { 1 }{ 3 } .1 } \)
\(=\frac { 6 }{ 10 } =0.6\)
18.
Let, E1: Event that lost card is a spade
E2: Event that lost card is a not spade
A: Event that three spades are drawn without replacement from 51 cards
\(P({ E }_{ 1 })=\frac { 13 }{ 52 } =\frac { 1 }{ 4 } ,\quad P({ E }_{ 2 })=1-\frac { 1 }{ 4 } =\frac { 3 }{ 4 } \)
\(P(A/{ E }_{ 1 })=\frac { { 12 }_{ C_{ 3 } } }{ { 51 }_{ { C }_{ 3 } } } ,\quad P(A/{ E }_{ 2 })=\frac { 13_{ { C }_{ 3 } } }{ { 51 }_{ { C }_{ 3 } } } \)
\(P({ E }_{ 1 }/A)=\frac { \frac { 1 }{ 4 } .\frac { { 12 }_{ C_{ 3 } } }{ { 51 }_{ { C }_{ 3 } } } }{ \frac { 1 }{ 4 } .\frac { { 12 }_{ C_{ 3 } } }{ { 51 }_{ { C }_{ 3 } } } +\frac { 3 }{ 4 } .\frac { { 12 }_{ C_{ 3 } } }{ { 51 }_{ { C }_{ 3 } } } } \)
\(=\frac { 10 }{ 49 } \)
19.
E1 = Event that 1 occur;
E2 = Event that 1 does not occur;
A = Event that the man reports that 1 occur.
\(P({ E }_{ 1 })=\frac { 1 }{ 6 } ;P({ E }_{ 2 })=\frac { 5 }{ 6 } ;\)
\(P(A/{ E }_{ 1 })=\frac { 3 }{ 5 } ;P(A/{ E }_{ 2 })=\frac { 2 }{ 5 } ;\)
\(P({ E }_{ 1 }/A)=\frac { \frac { 1 }{ 6 } .\frac { 3 }{ 5 } }{ \frac { 1 }{ 6 } .\frac { 3 }{ 5 } +\frac { 5 }{ 6 } .\frac { 2 }{ 5 } } =\frac { 3 }{ 13 } \)
20.
Let the events defined are :
E1: Person chosen is a cyclist
E2: Person chosen is a scooter driver
E3: Person chosen is a motorbike driver
A:Person meets with an accident
P(E1_= 1/6, P(E2) = 1/3, P(E3) = 1/2
P(A/E1) = 0.01, P(A/E2) = 0.03,
P(A/E3) = 0.15
\(P{ (E }_{ 2 }/A)=\frac { P({ E }_{ 2 }).P(A/{ E }_{ 2 }) }{ P({ E }_{ 1 }).P(A/{ E }_{ 1 })+P({ E }_{ 2 }).P(A/{ E }_{ 2 })+P({ E }_{ 3 }).P(A/{ E }_{ 3) } } \)
\(=\frac { \frac { 1 }{ 3 } \times 0.03 }{ \frac { 1 }{ 6 } \times 0.01+\frac { 1 }{ 3 } \times 0.03+\frac { 1 }{ 2 } \times 0.15 } \)
\(=\frac { 0.01 }{ 0.086 } \)
= 0.11627
Suggestion: Cycle should be promoted as it is:
(i) Good for health
(ii) Pollution free
(iii) Saves energy (no petrol).
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