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Published on: 06/09/2019
Probability
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1.
Find the probability distribution of number of doublets in three throws of apair of dice.
2.
A fair coin and an unbiased die are tossed. Let A be the event ‘head appears on the coin’ and B be the event '3 on the die’. Check whether A and B are independent events or not.
3.
An instructor has a question bank consisting of 300 easy True / False questions, 200 difficult True / False questions, 500 easy multiple choice questions and 400 difficult multiple choice questions. If a question is selected at random from the question bank, what is the probability that it will be an easy question given that it is a multiple choice question?
4.
Six balls are drawn successively from an urn containing 7 red and 9 black balls.Tell whether or not the trials of drawing black balls are Bernoulli trials when after each draws the ball drawn is:
(i) replaced
(ii) not replaced in the urn.
5.
A die is thrown twice and the sum of the numbers appearing is observed to be 6. What is the conditional probability that the number 4 has appeared atlaest once?
6.
12 cards, numbered 1 to 12, are placed in box mixed up thoroughly and then a card is drawn at random from the box. If it is known that the number on the drawn card is more than 3, find the probability that it is an even number.
7.
Out of 9 outstanding students of a school, there are 4 boys and 5 girls. A team of 4 students is to be selected for a quiz competition. Find the probability that 2 boys and 2 girls are selected.
8.
If each element of a second order determinant is either 0 or 1, what is the probability that the value of determinant is positive? (Assume that the individual entries of the determinant are chosen independently, each value assumed with probability \(1\over2\)).
9.
A box contains 50 bolts and 50 nuts. Half of the bolts and nuts are rusted. If two items are drawn with replacement, what is the probability that either both are rusted or both are bolts.
10.
If P(F) =\(\frac { 1 }{ 2 } and\ P(F)=\frac { 1 }{ 5 } \) find \(P(\overline { E\cup F } )\) If E and F are independent events.
11.
If P(E) = \(\frac { 6 }{ 11 } \), P(F) = \(\frac { 5 }{ 11 } \) and P(E \(\cup\)F) = \(\frac { 7 }{ 11 } \) then find (a) P(E/F), (b) P(F/E)
12.
One card is drawn is drawn from a pack of 52 cards. Find the probability of getting :
(a) a red card
(b) a jack of hearts
(c) a black face card
(d) a king.
13.
Events E and F are given to be independent. Find P(F) if it is given that P(E) = 0.60 and P(E\(\cap\)F) = 0.35
14.
Given P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.7 and P(B/A) = 0.6, Find \(P(A\cup B)\)
15.
Given P(A) = 0.2, P(B) = 0.3 and \(P(A\cap B)=0.3\) Find P(A/B)
16.
Bayes’ Theorem If E1 , E2 ,..., En are n non empty events which constitute a partition of sample space S, i.e. E1 , E2 ,..., En are pairwise disjoint and E1∪ E2∪ ... ∪ En = S and A is any event of nonzero probability, then
\(\mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{E}_i \mid \mathrm{A}\right)=\frac{\mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{E}_i\right) \mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{A}_{\mid} \mathrm{E}_i\right)}{\sum_{j=1}^n \mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{E}_j\right) \mathrm{P}\left({\left.\mathrm{A} \mid E_j\right)}_1\right.} \text { for any } i=1,2,3, \ldots, n\)
17.
Given P(A) = \(1\over2\), P(B) = \(1\over3\) and \(P(A\cap B)={1\over6}\) Are the events A and B independent?
18.
Two numbers are selected at random (without replacement) from the first six positive integers.Let x denote the larger of the two numbers obtained.Find the probability distribution of random variable x and hence find the mean of the distribution.
19.
An urn contains 3 white and 6 red balls. Four balls are drawn one by one with replacement from the urn. Find the probability distribution of the number of red balls drawn. Also, find mean and variance of distribution.
1.
Let X denote tha number of doublets.
Possible doublets are(1,1), (2,2), (3,3), (4,4), (5,5), (6,6)
probability of getting a doublet \(=\frac { 6 }{ 36 } =\frac { 1 }{ 6 } \)
Probability of not getting a doublet = \(1-\frac { 1 }{ 6 } =\frac { 5 }{ 6 } \)
Here X takes values 0,1,2,3
P(X = 0) = P(no doublet)
=\(\frac { 5 }{ 6 } \times \frac { 5 }{ 6 } \times \frac { 5 }{ 6 } =\frac { 125 }{ 216 } \)
P(X = 1) = P(one doublet and two non-doublets)
= \(\frac { 1 }{ 6 } \times \frac { 5 }{ 6 } \times \frac { 5 }{ 6 } +\frac { 5 }{ 6 } \times \frac { 1 }{ 6 } \times \frac { 5 }{ 6 } +\frac { 5 }{ 6 } \times \frac { 5 }{ 6 } \times \frac { 1 }{ 6 } =\frac { 75 }{ 126 } \)
P(X = 2) = P(two doublets and one non-doublet)
= \(\frac { 1 }{ 6 } \times \frac { 1 }{ 6 } \times \frac { 5 }{ 6 } +\frac { 1 }{ 6 } \times \frac { 5 }{ 6 } \times \frac { 1 }{ 6 } +\frac { 5 }{ 6 } \times \frac { 1 }{ 6 } \times \frac { 1 }{ 6 } =\frac { 15 }{ 126 } \)
P(X = 3) = P(three doublets)
=\(\frac { 1 }{ 6 } \times \frac { 1 }{ 6 } \times \frac { 1 }{ 6 } =\frac { 1 }{ 216 } \)
Hence, the probability distribution is:
| X: | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| P(X): | \(\frac { 175 }{ 216 } \) | \(\frac { 75 }{ 216 } \) | \(\frac { 15 }{ 216 } \) | \(\frac { 1 }{ 216 } \) |
2.
P(A) = P(Head) = \(\frac { 1 }{ 2 } \)
P(B) = P(3 on the die) = \(\frac { 1 }{ 6 } \)
When a die and a coin are tossed,
then sample space = (H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6}
\(P(A\cap B)=\) P(Head and 3) = \(\frac { 1 }{ 12 } \)
Now \(P(A\cap B)=\frac { 1 }{ 12 } =\frac { 1 }{ 2 } \times \frac { 1 }{6 } \)
= P(A)P(B).
Hence A and B are independent events.
3.
We have
| Easy | Difficult | Total | |
| True/False | 300 | 200 | 500 |
| Multiple choice | 500 | 400 | 900 |
| Total | 800 | 600 | 1400 |
LET E, D,T and M denote Easy, Diffcult,True/False and Multiple choice question respectively.
Total number of questions = 1400
Number of easy multiple choice questions = 500
\(\therefore \)\(P(E\cap M)=\frac { 500 }{ 1400 } \)
Total number of multiple choice questions = 900
\(\therefore \)\(P(M)=\frac { 900 }{ 1400 } \)
\(\therefore \)\(P(E/M)=\frac { P(E\cap M) }{ P(M) } \)
\(=\frac { \frac { 500 }{ 1400 } }{ \frac { 900 }{ 1400 } } =\frac { 5 }{ 9 } \)
4.
(i) The number of trials is finite. When the drawing is done with replacement, the probability of success (say, red ball) is p = \(\frac{7}{16}\)which is same for all six trials (draws). Hence, the drawing of balls with replacements are Bernoulli trials.
(ii) When the drawing is done without replacement, the probability of success (i.e., red ball) in first trial is \(\frac{7}{16}\)in 2nd trial is \(\frac{6}{15}\) if the first ball drawn is red or \(\frac{7}{15}\) if the first ball drawn is black and so on. Clearly, the probability of success is not same for all trials, hence the trials are not Bernoulli trials
5.
Let E be the event that ‘number 4 appears at least once’ and F be the event that ‘the sum of the numbers appearing is 6’.
Then, E = {(4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6), (1, 4), (2, 4), (3, 4), (5, 4), (6, 4)}
and F = {(1, 5), (2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2), (5, 1)}
\(\text {We have }\mathrm{P}(\mathrm{E})=\frac{11}{36} \text { and } \mathrm{P}(\mathrm{F})=\frac{5}{36} \)
Also E∩F = {(2, 4), (4, 2)}
\(\text {Therefore }\mathrm{P}(\mathrm{E} \cap \mathrm{F})=\frac{2}{36} \)
Hence, the required probability
\(\mathrm{P}(\mathrm{E} \mid \mathrm{F})=\frac{\mathrm{P}(\mathrm{E} \cap \mathrm{F})}{\mathrm{P}(\mathrm{F})}=\frac{\frac{2}{36}}{\frac{5}{36}}=\frac{2}{5}\)
For the conditional probability discussed above, we have considered the elementary events of the experiment to be equally likely and the corresponding definition of the probability of an event was used. However, the same definition can also be used in the general case where the elementary events of the sample space are not equally likely, the probabilities P(E∩F) and P(F) being calculated accordingly. Let us take up the following example.
6.
Total cards are 12
A : number drawn is more than 3, i.e. 4, 5, 6, ..., 12.
B : getting an even number, i.e. 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12.
\(A \cap B: 4,6,8,10,12 \)
\(P(B / A)=\frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)}=\frac{5 / 12}{9 / 12}=\frac{5}{9} .
\)
7.
Out of 9 students 4 can be selected in 9C4 ways favourable
cases of selecting 2 boys and 2 girls out of 4 boys and 5 girls is \({ }^{4} C_{2} \times{ }^{5} C_{2}\)
probability of selecting 2 boys and 2 girls out of 9
\(=\frac{{ }^{4} C_{2} \times{ }^{5} C_{2}}{{ }^{9} C_{4}}=\frac{6 \times 10 \times 24}{9 \times 8 \times 7 \times 6}=\frac{10}{21}\)
8.
There are four entries determinant of 2 x 2 order. Each entry may be filled up in two ways with 0 or 1. Therefore, number of determinants that can be formed
= 24 = 16
The value of determinant is positive in the following cases
\(\begin{vmatrix} 1 &0 \\0 &1 \end{vmatrix},\begin{vmatrix}1 &0 \\1 &1 \end{vmatrix},\begin{vmatrix}1 & 1 \\ 0 & 1 \end{vmatrix}\)
i.e, 3 determinants
Thus, the probability that the determinants is positive \(={3\over 16}\)
9.
Total number of bolts = 50
Total number of nuts = 50
Total number of rusted bolts = 25
Total number of rusted nuts = 25
Total no. of items = 100
Total no. rusted items = 50
E = rusted item, F = Bolts
\(P(E\cup F)=P(F)+P(F)-P(E\cap F)\)
\(P(E)=\left( \frac { 25 }{ 100 } \times \frac { 25 }{ 100 } \right) \)
\(=\frac { 1 }{ 4 } \times \frac { 1 }{ 4 } =\frac { 1 }{ 16 } \)
\(P(F)=\left( \frac { 50 }{ 100 } \times \frac { 50 }{ 100 } \right) =\frac { 1 }{ 4 } \)
\(P(E\cap F)=\left( \frac { 25 }{ 100 } \times \frac { 25 }{ 100 } \right) \)
\(=\frac { 1 }{ 4 } \times \frac { 1 }{ 4 } =\frac { 1 }{ 16 } \)
\(P(E\cup F)=\frac { 1 }{ 16 } +\frac { 1 }{ 4 } -\frac { 1 }{ 16 } \)
\(=\frac { 1 }{ 4 } \)
10.
\(P(E\cup F)=P(E)+P(F)-P(E\cap F)\)
If E and F are independent, then
\(=P(E\cap F)=P(E)\times P(F)\)
\(P(E\cup F)=P(E)+P(F)-P(E)\times P(F)\)
\(P(E\cup F)=\frac { 1 }{ 2 } +\frac { 1 }{ 5 } -\frac { 1 }{ 2 } \times \frac { 1 }{ 5 } \)
\(=\frac { 1 }{ 2 } +\frac { 1 }{ 5 } -\frac { 1 }{ 10 } -\frac { 5+2-1 }{ 10 } \)
\(=\frac { 6 }{ 10 } =\frac { 3 }{ 5 } \)
\(P(\overline { E\cup F } )=1-P(E\cup F)\)
\(=1-\frac { 3 }{ 5 } =\frac { 2 }{ 5 } \)
11.
P(E\(\cap\)F) = P(E) + P(F) - P(E\(\cup\)F)
\(=\frac { 6 }{ 11 } +\frac { 5 }{ 11 } -\frac { 7 }{ 11 } \)
\(=\frac { 4 }{ 11 } \)
(a) \(P(E/F)=\frac { P(E\cap F) }{ P(F) } \)
\(=\frac { \frac { 4 }{ 11 } }{ \frac { 5 }{ 11 } } =\frac { 4 }{ 5 } \)
(b) P(E/E) = \(\frac { P(E\cap F) }{ P(E) } \)
\(=\frac { \frac { 4 }{ 11 } }{ \frac { 6 }{ 11 } } =\frac { 4 }{ 6 } \)
\(=\frac { 2 }{ 3 } \)
12.
Total number of cards = 52
(a) Number of favourable cases = 26
\(\therefore\) Required probability =\(\frac { 26 }{ 52 } =\frac { 1 }{ 2 } \)
(b) Number of favourable cases = 1
\(\therefore\) Required probability = \(\frac { 1 }{ 52 } \)
(c) Number of favourable cases = 6
\(\therefore\) Required probability =\(\frac { 6 }{ 52 } =\frac { 3 }{ 26 } \)
(d) Number of favourable cases = 4
\(\therefore\) Required probability = \(\frac { 4 }{ 52 } =\frac { 1 }{ 13 } \)
13.
For independent events,
P(E∩F) = P(E) ⋅ P(F)
\(\Rightarrow 0.35=0.60 \times P(F) \Rightarrow P(F)=\frac{7}{12}=0.58\)
14.
\(
P(B / A)=\frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)}
\)
\(\Rightarrow 0.6 \times 0.4=P(A \cap B)
\)
\(\Rightarrow P(A \cap B)=0.24
\)
\( P(A \cup B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A \cap B)
\)
\(=0.4+0.7-0.24=0.86
\)
15.
1/3
16.
proof :
By formula of conditional probability, we know that
\( \mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{E}_i \mid \mathrm{A}\right) =\frac{\mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{A} \cap \mathrm{E}_i\right)}{\mathrm{P}(\mathrm{A})} \)
\(=\frac{\mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{E}_i\right) \mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{AlE} \mathrm{E}_i\right)}{\mathrm{P}(\mathrm{A})}(b y \) (by multiplication rule of probability)
\( =\frac{\mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{E}_i\right) \mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{AlE}_i\right)}{\sum_{j=1}^n \mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{E}_j\right) \mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{AlE}_j\right)} \)(by the result of theorem of total probability)
17.
P(A) ⋅ P(B) = \(1\over2\)⋅\(1\over3\) = \(1\over6\) = P(A∩B)
Yes, the events are independent.
18.
Total number of ways of selecting two numbers = 6C2 = 15
Values of x (larger of the two) can be 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
\(P(x=2)={1\over 15}\)
\(P(x=3)={2\over 15}\)
\(P(x=4)={3\over 15}\)
\(P(x=5)={4\over 15}\)
and \(P(x=6)={5\over 15}\)
Distribution can be written as
| x | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P(x) | \(1\over 15\) | \(2\over 15\) | \(3\over 15\) | \(4\over 15\) | \(5\over 15\) |
| xP(x) | \(2\over 15\) | \(6\over 15\) | \(12\over 15\) | \(20\over 15\) | \(30\over 15\) |
Mean \(=\sum xP(x)={70\over 15}={14\over 3}\)
19.
Let X is the number of red balls
So, X can take value 0, 1, 2, 3, 4
\(\therefore p=P(red\quad ball)=\frac { 6 }{ 9 } =\frac { 2 }{ 3 } \)
\(\therefore \ q=1-p=\frac { 1 }{ 3 } \)
Case 1: When X = 0, all white balls
\(P(X=0)={ 4 }_{ { C }_{ 0 } }{ \left( \frac { 1 }{ 3 } \right) }^{ 4-0 }{ \left( \frac { 2 }{ 3 } \right) }^{ 0 }=\frac { 1 }{ 81 } \)
Case 2: When X = 1, 3 white and 1 red balls
\(P(X=1)={ 4 }_{ { C }_{ 1 } }{ \left( \frac { 1 }{ 3 } \right) }^{ 4-1 }{ \left( \frac { 2 }{ 3 } \right) }^{ 1 }\)
\(=4\times \frac { 1 }{ 27 } \times \frac { 2 }{ 3 } =\frac { 8 }{ 81 } \)
Case 3: When X = 2, 2 white and 2 red balls
\(P(x=2)={ 4 }_{ { C }_{ 2 } }{ \left( \frac { 1 }{ 3 } \right) }^{ 4-2 }{ \left( \frac { 2 }{ 3 } \right) }^{ 2 }\)
\(=6\times \frac { 1 }{ 9 } \times \frac { 4 }{ 9 } =\frac { 24 }{ 81 } \)
Case 4: When X = 3, 1 white and 3 red balls
\(P(X=3)={ 4 }_{ { C }_{ 3 } }{ \left( \frac { 1 }{ 3 } \right) }^{ 4-3 }{ \left( \frac { 2 }{ 3 } \right) }^{ 3 }\)
\(=4\times \frac { 1 }{ 3 } \times \frac { 8 }{ 27 } =\frac { 32 }{ 81 } \)
Case 5: When X = 4, 4 red balls
P(X = 4) = \({ 4 }_{ { C }_{ 4 } }{ \left( \frac { 1 }{ 3 } \right) }^{ 4-4 }{ \left( \frac { 2 }{ 3 } \right) }^{ 4 }\)
\(=1\times 1\times \frac { 16 }{ 81 } =\frac { 16 }{ 81 } \)
\(\therefore \) the probability distribution of number of red ball is:
| X | P(X) | XP(X) | X2P(X) |
| 0 | \(\frac { 1 }{ 81 } \) | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | \(\frac { 8 }{ 81 } \) | \(\frac { 8 }{ 81 } \) | \(\frac { 8 }{ 81 } \) |
| 2 | \(\frac { 24 }{ 81 } \) | \(\frac { 48 }{ 81 } \) | \(\frac { 96 }{ 81 } \) |
| 3 | \(\frac { 32 }{ 81 } \) | \(\frac { 96 }{ 81 } \) | \(\frac { 288 }{ 81 } \) |
| 4 | \(\frac { 16 }{ 81 } \) | \(\frac { 64 }{ 81 } \) | \(\frac { 256 }{ 81 } \) |
| \(\sum { P(X)=1 } \) | \(\sum { XP(X)=\frac { 216 }{ 81 } } \) \(=\frac { 8 }{ 3 } \) |
\(\sum { { X }^{ 2 }P(X)=\frac { 648 }{ 81 } } \) =8 |
\(Mean=\sum { XP(X)=\frac { 8 }{ 3 } } \)
\(Var\ (X)=\sum { { X }^{ 2 }P(X)-\{ \sum { XP(X){ \} }^{ 2 } } } \)
\(=8-{ \left( \frac { 8 }{ 3 } \right) }^{ 2 }=8-\frac { 64 }{ 9 } =\frac { 8 }{ 9 } =0.88\)
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